There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel "pose risks to external stability and currency movement," a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said. Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.
International oil prices continue to be extremely volatile, falling on one day and rising thereafter, a top oil ministry official said explaining the reason behind no reduction in petrol and diesel prices despite softening in input cost, but could not say if the rates will be cut before Maharashtra elections. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell below $70 per barrel last week -- the first time since December 2021 -- but gained thereafter. Brent was trading at $74.58 per barrel on Thursday while West Texas Intermediate advanced to trade at $71.71.
This is the case even though the benchmark index is only 5 per cent below its all-time high. The list of stocks trading at a discount primarily consists companies in the automotive, banking, oil and gas, insurance, healthcare, and metal sectors.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
India's current account deficit (CAD) may dip further in the March quarter of FY24 as pressure from the negative net exports during the January-March period eased to an 11-quarter high. A part of the gross domestic product (GDP) data, net export- which is usually negative for India - captures the difference between exports and imports of both goods and services, while the CAD data, released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), also factors in private transfer receipts.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
'The estimated expenditure is expected to be more than double the Rs 60,000 crore spent in 2019'
To boost domestic manufacturing under the Make in India initiative and reduce dependency on imports, the government is expected to announce in the Budget an increase in the minimum local content requirement for public procurement, with certain sectors being granted exceptions. Currently, firms producing goods, services, or works with at least 50 per cent local content are classified as Class-I local suppliers and are preferred the most in government procurement.
In May, MFs were the net sellers in several PSUs, as they deployed Rs 47,600 crore in equities during the month.
Industry body CII on Thursday made a case for pushing reforms in sectors like land, labour, and agriculture by the Modi 3.0 government to accelerate economic growth, which is estimated to be around 8 per cent in the current financial year. CII president Sanjiv Puri said a lot of policy interventions in the past have put the economy on "a much stronger wicket". "The growth rate is poised to touch 8 per cent during the current year, marking the fourth consecutive year of above 7 per cent + growth.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty hit their all-time high levels on Friday helped by impressive GDP data and fresh foreign fund inflows. Also, a rally in global markets added to the positive momentum in the equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 1,139.04 points to 73,639.34 -- its all-time peak -- in the late afternoon trade.
Unincorporated enterprises in the manufacturing sector lost nearly 1.8 million establishments and shed 5.4 million jobs between July 2015-June 2016 and October 2022-September 2023, an analysis of the fact sheet on 'Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE)' and the comparable 73rd round survey in 2015-16 by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed. An estimated 17.82 million unincorporated enterprises operated in the manufacturing sector in October 2022-September 2023, nearly 9.3 per cent down from 19.7 million unincorporated enterprises in July 2015- June 2016.
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
Indian exporters shipping goods to Israel may face higher insurance premiums and shipping costs due to the Israel-Hamas conflict, according to experts. Israel witnessed a surprise and unprecedented multifront attack by air, land and sea by the Hamas militant group, which rules the Gaza Strip, in its southern parts on Saturday morning. The International trade experts said the conflict may reduce the profits of domestic exporters but will not impact trade volumes unless war escalates.
Moody's Ratings on Thursday raised India's GDP growth forecast for FY24 to around 8 per cent from 6.6 per cent on the back of strong domestic consumption and capital expenditure. The estimate comes a day after RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the economic growth in the current financial year could be close to 8 per cent in view of the third quarter GDP data released by the government. The latest estimate of Moody's is about 140 basis points higher than the earlier projection of 6.6 per cent made in November 2023.
The Budget announcement of taxing 'virtual digital assets' or crypto currencies will help the income-tax department measure the "depth" of this trade in the country, know the investors and the nature of their investments and it does not "attach any legality" to these transactions, Central Board of Direct Taxes chairman J B Mohapatra said.
Investors shunned shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) on Friday as they feared that the government's decision to cut retail prices of petrol and diesel could hurt the companies' profit margins in the near term. On Thursday, the government announced that OMCs will reduce pump prices of petrol and diesel after a record 22 months, making them cheaper by Rs 2 per litre in the national capital. The changes were effective from Friday.
Based on information received from those arrested, a raid was conducted at Delhi's Kotla Mubarakpur on Tuesday, a police officer said.
Britain's wealthiest family, the Hindujas, have said they were 'appalled' by a Swiss court's ruling of jail terms for some members and have filed an appeal in a higher court challenging the verdict finding them guilty of exploiting vulnerable domestic workers from India at their villa in Geneva.
Switching to the UPS could be a game-changer for your retirement planning, especially if you value guaranteed benefits and higher government contributions, observes Ramalingam Kalirajan.
BSE (formerly Bombay Stock Exchange) has seen its market share go past the critical 20 per cent mark in the derivatives segment, intensifying its battle with bigger rival - the National Stock Exchange (NSE) - which, less than a year ago, had a monopoly in this space. In April, the average daily trading volume (ADTV) for BSE stood at Rs 89 trillion, accounting for 20.6 per cent of the overall ADTV of Rs 432 trillion (based on notional volumes for options).
'India needs many more job creators, both in manufacturing and services, to make it big.' 'For that, the red carpet must be rolled out fully and for all investors without holding back,' suggests Nivedita Mookerji.
The State Department said as India's number one overseas market, the US purchases close to one-fifth of its exports. India is also the fastest growing major market for American goods.
The Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) on Saturday said it has arrested Jaffer Sadiq, a Tamil Nadu-based alleged dealer of narcotics, in connection with an international drugs trafficking investigation case.
Officials hint the visit could finally see a formal defence industrial road map being adopted by both nations.
The Union government is projected to share about 32 per cent of central taxes with states during the financial year 2024-25 against the 15th Finance Commission's recommendation of 41 per cent. The Revised Estimates (RE) for FY24, too, show a similar share of states in the central taxes at 32 per cent. In absolute terms, however, there has been an increase in the amount devolved to states compared to the Budget Estimates (BE) for FY24 at Rs 11 trillion.
The trade impact of the coronavirus epidemic for India is estimated to be about 348 million dollars (approximately Rs 25 billion) and the country figures among the top 15 economies most affected as slowdown of manufacturing in China disrupts world trade, according to a UN report. Estimates published by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development on Wednesday said that the slowdown of manufacturing in China due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is disrupting world trade and could result in a 50 billion dollar decrease in exports across global value chains.
'The two sides agree to continue firmly supporting each other in safeguarding their respective core interests,' a joint statement issued at the end of Muizzu's talks with Chinese leaders said.
There was no smooth surge in middle class prosperity for foreign businesses to tap into because of the Indian economy was mismanaged, argues Debashis Basu.
SBI, which accounts for about a quarter of India's loans and deposits, said standalone net profit fell about 8 per cent from a year earlier to Rs 30.41 billion ($519.8 million) in its fiscal fourth quarter to March 31.
HDFC Bank's latest shareholding data showed that the room for foreign investment has fallen just 5 basis points short of the threshold set by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to fully include the stock in its indices. Currently, the index provider has applied an adjustment factor of 0.5 since the foreign room is less than 25 per cent. Removal of the adjustment factor will result in inflows of a massive $4.8 billion (Rs 40,000 crore) into HDFC Bank, according to Brian Freitas, a New Zealand-based analyst with Periscope Analytics.
With the strain and anxiety of the longest Lok Sabha polls now behind the leaders, governance, with consensus, is the next step.
The proposed policy is increasingly becoming an item of negotiation, as the US pushes hard to change India's stance.
The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
With the reality of coalition politics staring the BJP in its face, this was inevitable, points out Ramesh Menon.
Despite discounts on Russian crude oil - which fell to the lowest since the Ukraine war began - and the rising sanctions, import volumes from the country will remain stable for now or at least till July, said refinery officials. "There is an appetite for Russian crude, and shipments are not expected to taper off beyond this point unless something major happens. "Talks are on, and buying will continue," an official at a major refinery said.
Brokerages believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) stronger-than-expected showing in state elections reduces political risks for the domestic markets going into 2024. However, after the short-term excitement, the focus will soon shift to earnings, global liquidity conditions, and the interest rate trajectory. "BJP's win in the three state elections is much better than what exit polls suggested and reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win in the 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of 300+ seats for the BJP.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
2016 will be the first time in 15 years that the ratio between trade growth and world GDP will fall below 1:1
After a technology upgrade, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) appears poised for an improvement in volumes. The premier commodity and forex exchange reported a loss of Rs 19.1 crore in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24). This was attributed to higher software charges payable under an extended service agreement with 63 moons technologies and a one-off cost towards core guaranteed funds (CGF).
